How StartupHunt works

Everything you need to know about prediction markets, points, tiers, and more.

What is StartupHunt?

StartupHunt is a free prediction market for the indie startup community. You bet virtual Points on real startup outcomes — verified MRR milestones, growth rates, and more — using data from TrustMRR.

Your goal: build the highest win rate by making accurate calls. Top players earn visibility and credibility in the community.

Points

Every new account starts with 100 Points. Points are your betting currency — you wager them on markets and win more when your prediction is correct.

  • Minimum bet: 1 pt
  • Points are earned only through winning bets
  • Hit 0 points? You get 10 free pts automatically so you can keep playing

How markets work

Each market asks a binary question about a real startup: Yes or No. Markets resolve automatically when the deadline hits, using verified data from TrustMRR.

Odds move dynamically as bets come in using the LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) — the same model used by Polymarket. The more points wagered on one side, the lower the payout for that side.

  • MRR milestone — will the startup hit a target MRR?
  • Growth rate — will MRR or revenue growth exceed X%?
  • Profit margin — will profit margin exceed X%?
  • Customer / subscriber count — will they hit N customers?
Seeded liquidity — every new market starts with 100 pts of initial liquidity (50 YES / 50 NO). This ensures fair starting odds for the first bettors and prevents extreme payouts on empty pools.

Payouts

When a market resolves, everyone who bet on the winning side receives a payout proportional to their share of the winning pool. The formula:

payout = your_bet × (1 / probability_at_bet_time)

Betting early when odds are low gives higher potential returns. Contrarian bets (going against the crowd) also pay off more.

Tiers

Your win rate determines your tier, displayed on the leaderboard:

🌱Rookie< 50% winsJust getting started.
🔍Scout50–64% winsConsistently ahead of the crowd.
🧠Guru65–79% winsSharp, contrarian, accurate.
🏆Oracle80%+ winsTop tier. Your calls are gospel.

Leaderboard

Players are ranked by win rate — the percentage of your resolved bets that were correct. Total bets are used as a tiebreaker.

Click any player to view their public trade history — direction, amount, and outcome for each bet.

The Board

Want to list your own startup? Head to The Board and submit your startup. If your product is on TrustMRR, anyone can create a market for it.

Daily Newsletter

Every morning we send a digest with new markets, live markets closing soon, and recently resolved results. You can unsubscribe anytime from your account settings.

TrustMRR data

All market outcomes are verified using TrustMRR — the verified MRR API for indie startups. Markets resolve automatically when TrustMRR reports the outcome. No manual intervention.

Browse open markets →